$1.08 NO MOVE IN JULY INTEREST RATE ... AS 5.6-5.7% NATIONAL JOBLESS FIGURE BACKED INTO $2.40!
Tags : neil evans, good evans, featured10th June 2009, by Daniel Hillege
The official RBA Interest Rate is at the almost unbackable short odds of $1.08 with leading bookmaker Centrebet to remain on hold when the Reserve Bank declares its hand again on the first Tuesday in July!
The official RBA Interest Rate is at the almost unbackable short odds of $1.08 with leading bookmaker Centrebet to remain on hold when the Reserve Bank declares its hand again on the first Tuesday in July!
Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said the unexpected recent spike in the national account figures and continued robust results in across-the-board retail spending would be enough to convince the Reserve to leave the rate as it is!
"The RBA has forecast that with the prospect of inflation declining over the medium term, there is still room for a further easing of monetary policy, but it is almost certain to allow more time for cash injections to fuel the economy and shattered business confidence to continue rebuilding," Evans said. "The Reserve is still mindful of having room to move either way!"
Still Evans said Centrebet had priced a 25 basis points cut as the only other likely outcome at $4.50, with the 50 per cent cut at $11.00. Any increase in the official cash rate is a long $41.00! "Economic data tells us any increase in rates is more likely to come in six to nine months, not now!"
Meanwhile, both the 5.6 - 5.7 per cent and 5.8 - 5.9 figures have been well backed on Centrebet's controversial national jobless market, ahead of the published unemployment announcement!
Centrebet's opening favourite of 5.6 - 5.7% has firmed to $2.40 (from $2.85), while one level higher has shortened from $3.75 into $2.85. The current jobless level of 5.4 - 5.5 has eased in the market from $4.25 out to $5.00! The 6.0 - 6.1 % option has firmed a point from $8.00 into $7.00!
And the national economy market, asking punters to wager on whether Australia slips into an official recession in 2009, is still locked together at $1.85 both ways after the shock 0.4% growth announcement last week rebuffed all trends, and left once super-confident punters who had backed the recession nervous!
In election betting, former Planning Minister Frank Sartor has joined Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt as a $3.00 equal favourite with Centrebet to be the leader of the NSW Labor government when NSW next votes, likely early 2011!
The big mover, though, has been Health Minister John Della Bosca who has shortened from $21.00 into $12.00 after revelations he was planning a leadership challenge down the line!
"It seems the Della Bosca and Sartor camps are trying to flush each other out, but I still believe Carmel Tebbutt is in the box seat if she chooses to genuinely pursue the position," Evans said. "There has been speculation either Michael Daley or Christina Kennelley could come from the clouds to join the race, but my mail is both are being potentially groomed for 2015 when Labor is likely to be in Opposition!"
Embattled Premier Nathan Rees is solid at $6.00 after being heavily backed from a big price when the market first opened!
| NEXT RBA INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT | |
| $1.08 | OFFICIAL RATE STAYS THE SAME |
| $4.50 | CUT BY 0.01 - 0.25 % |
| $11.00 | CUT BY 0.26 - 0.50 % |
| $26.00 | CUT BY 0.51 - 0.75 % |
| $34.00 | CUT BY 0.76 - 1.0 % |
| $41.00 | ANY OFFICIAL INCREASE |
| $51.00 | CUT BY MORE THAN 1.0 % |
| AUSTRALIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE | |
| $2.40 | 5.6 - 5.7 % |
| $2.85 | 5.8 - 5.9 % |
| $5.00 | 5.4 - 5.5 % |
| $7.00 | 6.0 - 6.1 % |
| $8.00 | 5.2 - 5.3 % |
| $15.00 | 6.2 - 6.3 % |
| $17.00 | 5.0 - 5.1 % |
| $26.00 | 6.4 - 6.5 % |
| $51.00 | Below 5.0 % |
| $51.00 | Above 6.5 % |
| LABOR LEADER AT NEXT STATE ELECTION? | |
| $3.00 | CARMEL TEBBUTT |
| $3.00 | FRANK SARTOR |
| $6.00 | NATHAN REES |
| $6.25 | JOHN ROBERTSON |
| $12.00 | JOHN DELLA BOSCA |
| $21.00 | VERITY FIRTH |
| $26.00 | DAVID CAMPBELL |
| $34.00 | JOE TRIPODI |
| $34.00 | STEVE WHAN |
| $51.00 | VIRGINIA JUDGE |
| $67.00 | MORRIS IEMMA |
| FEDERAL ELECTION – (Sch: 2011) | |
| $1.55 | LABOR |
| $2.42 | COALITION |
| AUS RECESSION IN 2009? | |
| YES | $1.85 |
| NO | $1.85 |
| NSW STATE ELECTION - (sch: 2011) | |
| $2.92 | LABOR |
| $1.37 | COALITION |
last update : 10th June 2009 10:35
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