RBA SPRING MOVE! No Change to September Interest Rate opens $1.10 favourite on Centrebet!

18th August 2009, by Daniel Hillege

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has again opened no official change to the Reserve Bank interest rate a hot favourite ahead of the September 1 decision, despite continued talk of a pivotal rate rise!

Leading financial bookmaker Centrebet has again opened no official change to the Reserve Bank interest rate a hot favourite ahead of the September 1 decision, despite continued talk of a pivotal rate rise!

Centrebet media chief and financial analyst Neil Evans announced ‘No Change’ had opened a hot $1.10 favourite, with a 25bp increase the only other likely option, quoted a $3.25 second-elect! A smaller 0.01 - 0.10 ‘nudge’ increase is on the third line at $6.00! But, with rate reductions considered to have “bottomed out,” a 25bp rate cut is now $21.00!

“While our economy has shown above-average resilience to absorbing monetary pressure, and rebounding strong in key commercial sectors, we believe the RBA will continue a tight monitoring approach as the wider economy continues to stabilise, and global economies keep recovering,” Evans said.

“Any rise in the official cash rate is likely to be a little time ahead because overall demand for labour is still weak, and business borrowing has declined, despite recent signs of improvement in the building sector and housing credit demand!”

Evans said a small rate rise had been factored into the September betting market after 12 months of significant easing of policy meant mortgage-holders had enjoyed generational low levels of interest rate repayments!

Meanwhile, the official Recession market – asking punters to bet on whether or not Australia’s economy falls below the recession line in 2009 - has seen “No” firm up dramatically in a month from $1.48 into $1.30, with “Yes” now out from $2.65 to $3.25! Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP will constitute an official recession!

NSW PREMIER RIVALS CHALLENGED BY ‘ANY OTHER’!

Meanwhile, a log-jam has appeared among the frontrunners for the Premier’s job in NSW, with “Any Other Candidate” firming from $9.00 into $5.00 on Centrebet after Planning Minister Kristina Kenneally was thrown into the fray and backed by ‘connected’ punters!

Evans said as the embattled NSW Labor government awaited the next poll and the “shoring up” of numbers hit overdrive, former Planning Minister Frank Sartor is still Centrebet’s $3.75 favourite, with close challengers powerful Upper House MP John Della Bosca ($4.00), Deputy leader Carmel Tebbutt ($4.25) and current Premier Nathan Rees ($5.50) all easy in the market!

“The bizarre factor is that when we first opened the Labor Leader’s market six months ago, Ms Kenneally was not quoted. She really wasn’t on the radar, but in the last week she has been backed and we know she is being pushed by some influential types,” Evans said. “Policy-wise, she is well respected, but as far as punters go, she is represented by “Any Other Candidate” in this market!”

“It certainly would be some sort of betting history if “Any other Candidate” was Premier when NSW next goes to the polls!”

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last update : 18th August 2009 14:35