ABLETT TO GET BROWNLOW, GEELONG EARLY FAVOURITES FOR FINAL!

21st September 2009, by Daniel Hillege

Fresh from destroying Collingwood, and carrying an avalanche of betting money, Geelong has opened a $1.61 favourite with leading bookmaker Centrebet to win its second AFL flag in three years, with minor premier St Kilda starting a $2.33 outsider!

Fresh from destroying Collingwood, and carrying an avalanche of betting money, Geelong has opened a $1.61 favourite with leading bookmaker Centrebet to win its second AFL flag in three years, with minor premier St Kilda starting a $2.33 outsider!

Centrebet media chief Neil Evans said the gap in the head-to-head market represents a stunning return to health and form for the Cats squad who have chased the Saints tail all season! "The way Geelong's key men have fired through the finals, and the massive burden of expectation for the Saints chasing their first flag in 43 years, means the Cats in our opinion are a clear favourite," Evans said.

Punters will go into the grand final all cashed up after Geelong's romp over the Magpies! "The Cats were the most heavily backed team in AFL preliminary final history on Centrebet, shortening from an opening $1.50 to start the match a hot $1.30," Evans said. "It was an avalanche of money that didn't stop for five days!" At the same time, Collingwood blew like a gale from $2.60 out to $3.70! And the Line which opened at 13.5 was obliterated out to 20.5 by the time the game started!

Early outright bets on the Cats included $10,000.00 at $1.50, $5,000.00 at $1.50, $5,000.00 at $1.47, $5,000.00 at $1.45 and $10,000.00 at $1.42! But most of the big damage came with the big Line punters, including a sharp client who wagered $75,000.00 ( - 13.5) at $1.91 and another who came in with $30,000.00 ( - 16.5) at $1.91!

Then in the last 48 hours up to the bounce, Centrebet took hundreds of bets on Geelong, including $20,000 at $1.38, $15,000.00 ( - 16.5) at $1.91, $10,000.00 ( - 16.5) at $1.91 and $5,000.00 ( - 17.5) at $1.91, and countless more! The lone sizeable bet on the Pies was $12,000.00 at $3.55! "More or less, it was a wipeout," Evans said.

Some 24 hours earlier, punters also took the bulk of money, with most big bets either for St Kilda straight out or the Western Bulldogs at the + 18.5 Line!

"Saints falling over the line by seven points was our worst result, we took bets on St Kilda of $15,000.00 at $1.35, $5,000.00 at $1.36 and $4,000.00 at $1.37, but successful Line bets on the Dogs included $4,000.00 ( + 18.0) at $1.91 and $5,000.00 ( + 18.5) at $1.91!

Evans said Centrebet also had to lean Geelong's way because right from the start of the season they have carried far more premiership money than St Kilda! "Certainly, the Saints would be a better result for us. We don't need any more of the Cats claws," he said.

• Meanwhile, the money on Centrebet continues to swing back the way of star Geelong on-baller Gary Ablett to finally land the Brownlow Medal, firming from $3.00 into $2.75! Evans said apart from Collingwood's Dane Swan ( solid at $5.00) all other frontline contenders had eased in the market, with the surge for Ablett!

Two-time winner Sydney's Adam Goodes is on the third line at $7.00, while St Kilda's Nick dal Santo has eased to $9.00! The only other late firmer is St Kilda skipper Nick Riewoldt who's attracted good money and shortened from $14.00 into $12.00!

last update : 21st September 2009 11:31