FIRST LINE MARKET IN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION HISTORY!
Tags : Australia, neil evans, featured2nd June 2010, by Unknown author
Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has released the first Line market in Australia’s political betting history – with the Labor government giving up 4.5 seats start to the Coalition in a head-to-head seat count at the next Federal poll!
Leading election bookmaker Centrebet has released the first Line market in Australia’s political betting history – with the Labor government giving up 4.5 seats start to the Coalition in a head-to-head seat count at the next Federal poll!
Centrebet media chief and market creator Neil Evans said a Line market – with the two major parties giving or getting a start – would be compelling for punters, particularly with a “hot bed” election that is expected to come down to the wire.
“It’s just like in the AFL or NRL where teams either give up or receive a start,” Evans said. “Especially for pro-active and serious political punters, they will have the fine tooth comb out straight away picking through all the key marginal seats around the country to see where and how much ground the Coalition can make up!”
Evans said the market excluded any seats won by Independents, or any other political party, and was a simple count at the Line between the ALP and the Liberal-National Coalition.
“Labor won 83 seats sweeping to power in late 2007, while the Coalition won 65, but that has been effectively cut to 63, with the subsequent loss of one seat at a forced by-election, and another because of a sitting MP’s expulsion! Already there is up to six tight marginal seats held by Labor that are being ear-marked to return to the Coalition, but of course, the Opposition effectively needs to win 13 seats to govern in its own right, while Labor could afford to lose seven seats and still maintain a majority government.
“The other key factor is several MP’s have lost pre-selection, or intend not contesting their seat at the next election. This new market is all about the margin both ways, yet I have no doubt the Line will move around all over the place before Australians go to the polls!”
In the last few days bets of $20,000.00 at $1.42, $5,000.00 at $1.43 and $2,000.00 at $1.43 have arrived for the government, while a Canberra man yesterday bet $6,500.00 on the Coalition at $2.72! Centrebet currently has Labor a $1.43 favourite, with the Coalition a $2.72 outsider.
And the bookmaker has re-shaped its special Federal Election Date market, with ‘Any Saturday in 2011’ now a wide $6.00 favourite, ahead of August 28 at $7.50! Punters can get $11.00 for any Saturday in December this year, or $12.00 for a date before August 7. Meanwhile, ahead of the NSW State election next March, Centrebet has opened Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres a hot $1.20 favourite to win the traditional Labor seat of Penrith at a by-election on June 19.
Evans said Penrith – won by the ALP 10 out of 11 contests in NSW political history, and currently sitting on a 9.2% margin – would be a hotly-anticipated count, with Kristina Kenneally’s Labor government on the floor as a whopping $5.30 outsider on Centrebet.
“We saw Labor lose Ryde by a record margin of more than 20 per cent in 2008, and if the government is destroyed in one of its stature blue-collar seats like Penrith, than a change of government next March seems assured!”
AUST FED ELECTION (Sch 2010/11) |
NSW STATE ELECTION |
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$1.43 |
LABOR |
PENRITH BY-ELECTION (June 19) |
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$2.72 |
COALITION |
$1.20 |
STUART AYRES (Lib) |
|
LINE |
$4.25 |
JOHN THAIN (ALP) |
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$1.85 |
LABOR (- 4.5 seats) |
$11.00 |
SUZIE WRIGHT (Greens) |
|
$1.85 |
COALITION (+ 4.5 seats) |
$26.00 |
NOEL SELBY (Ind) |
|
|
|
$34.00 |
JOSE SANZ (Aust Dems) |
|
WHEN WILL ELECTION BE HELD? |
$67.00 |
ANDREW GREEN (Christian Dems) |
||
$6.00 |
ANY DATE IN 2011 |
$67.00 |
DAVID LEYONHJELM (Outdoor Recreation) |
|
$7.50 |
SAT, AUG 28 |
$67.00 |
MICK SAUNDERS (Aust First) |
|
$8.50 |
SAT, AUG 21 |
|
|
|
$8.50 |
SAT, SEPT 4 |
NSW STATE ELECTION |
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$9.50 |
SAT, AUG 14 |
$5.30 |
LABOR |
|
$11.00 |
ANY DATE IN DEC 2010 |
$1.14 |
COALITION |
|
$12.00 |
BEFORE AUG 7 |
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$13.00 |
SAT, AUG 7 |
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$13.00 |
SAT, SEPT 11 |
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$13.00 |
SAT, OCT 16 |
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$14.00 |
SAT, SEPT 18 |
|||
$14.00 |
SAT, OCT 30 |
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$14.00 |
SAT, NOV 6 |
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$14.00 |
SAT, NOV 13 |
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$15.00 |
SAT, NOV 20 |
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$15.00 |
SAT, OCT 23 |
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$16.00 |
SAT, OCT 9 |
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$18.00 |
SAT, OCT 2 |
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$21.00 |
SAT, SEPT 25 |
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$26.00 |
SAT, NOV 27 |
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FOR ALL THE MARKETS GO TO www.centrebet.com ELECTIONS
last update : 2nd June 2010 14:23
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