Election News and Views & Centrebet
Tags : press release, neil evans, media release, featured, Elections, election4th August 2010, by Daniel Hillege
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An astonishing betting change has occurred in the crucial Central Qld seat of Dawson, with nearly $15,000.00 in smart bets arriving for new Labor candidate and Whitsunday Mayor Mike Brunker who has firmed today from a clear $2.40 outsider back into $2.10!
Centrebet media chief and analyst Neil Evans said one Qld punter bet $8,000.00 across two bets at $2.40 and $2.30, while another client had $3,000.00 at $2.20, as well as a string of other smaller bets up to $1,000.00!
Evans said previously the LNP’s Mackay City Councillor George Christensen had powered into a clear $1.50 favourite (from $1.80) after attracting a series of wagers, including smart money from Canberra! Today, Christensen still holds favouritism, but has eased on Centrebet from $1.50 out to $1.65!!
In the historic crucial north-western Sydney seat of Bennelong, former tennis pro John Alexander has hit back in the last 24 hours, firming from $3.00 back into $2.90 after nearly 50 individual bets, but all the smart money remains on sitting Labor candidate Maxine McKew who eases slightly from $1.34 out to $1.36!
In the vital Victorian seat of Corangamite, Labor’s Darren Cheeseman has crucially shortened back into $1.70 after a surge of money today against Liberal opponent and former TV presenter Sarah Henderson who is now odds against at $2.04!
In one of the most fluctuating betting seats in the country – the famed bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in southern NSW - Liberal challenger David Gazard has firmed from $3.10 back into $2.90 today! Evans said bet numbers were running neck-and-neck, although the bigger and smarter money is still with ALP encumbent Mike Kelly!
And a ray of light for Labor’s embattled sitting MP Jim Tounour in the vital Far Nth Qld and Gulf seat of Leichhardt! A regular Nth Qld client has unloaded $2,000.00 across three separate bets on Turnour forcing his price from $2.40 back into $2.35! This puts the brakes on the previously heavily-backed returning LNP challenger Warren Entsch who had tumbled from $1.85 into $1.50 at the height of some very smart money! Entsch has eased out to $1.53 today, with nearly $10,000.00 traded in the seat! Turnour won the seat for the ALP in 2007 on a record 14.3% swing, and now holds it by a 4.1% margin!
The Liberal Party’s great hope in the threadbare western Sydney seat of Macquarie – former Greenway MP Louise Markus - continues to dominate the betting! With redistributions and the retirement of veteran Labor MP Bob Debus, new candidate Susan Templeman has been wiped by punters, with Ms Markus firming further today from $1.75 into $1.72! Templeman is now out to $2.00, and the “crunch” seat looks headed to the Coalition! Bet numbers are running 5:1 Ms Markus’ way!
The pivotal Nth Qld seat of Hinkler looks safe for the Coalition after more money arrived today for long-serving National MP Paul Neville who has firmed under a weight of money from $1.50 into $1.35 to increase his slender 1.2% margin against Labor’s Fraser Coast councillor Belinda McNeven!
In the tight western Brisbane seat of Ryan, the LNP’s Jane Prentice continues to dominate bet numbers by 4:1 and has firmed today from $1.50 into $1.48 to retain the seat against Labor’s Steve Miles, despite redistributions cutting the Liberal Party’s margin from 3.8% back to a very narrow 1.2%
Labor’s bold bid to steal the ultra-marginal eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt from Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne has officially run aground, with ALP candidate and University Criminal professor Rick Sarre completely wiped by punters! Nearly $15,000.00 has been bet into this book, with Mr Pyne holding 99 per cent! Despite a 0.9% threadbare margin, he has officially firmed from an opening $1.55 into $1.25, while Prof Sarre has blown from $2.32 out to $3.50!
And more money today for the Liberal’s great hope in the marginal Labor seat of Bass in Tasmania, with Steve Titmus firming from $2.16 into $2.05! New Labor candidate, former Launceston Hospital business manager Geoff Lyons is now out to $1.68 after opening $1.58! One bet of $1,000.00 on Titmus at $2.12!
Meanwhile, Labor has drifted again from $1.52 out to $1.54 on Centrebet, after punters charged into the $2.50 offered about the Coalition winning the election, pushing them back in to $2.45! Bets in the last 24 hours for the Coalition include $7k at $2.46 from Brisbane, $1500 at $2.46 from Sydney, $5k at $2.50 from Sydney and $4k and $2k at $2.50 from Brisbane! But bigger Labor bets in the same time include $2.5k at $1.52 from Perth, $5k at $1.54 from Canberra and $2.3k at $1.52 from Brisbane!
Bet numbers across the outright, Line and all seat betting have gone past 3000 individual wagers. While total turnover is now pushing $2 million! In 2007, Centrebet held around $5.3 million across the Federal Election!
And more embarrassment for the NSW Labor Party seven months out from an election blowing to an all-time high of $6.50 (from $6.00) on Centrebet, with the Coalition now into an almost unbackable $1.09 (from $1.11)! Alarm bells as well for Victorian Labor, with John Brumby’s ALP government out to $1.45 (from $1.44), and the Coalition in to $2.68 (from $2.72) just 11 weeks from the Victorian State Election!
| DAWSON – QLD |
| $1.65 GEORGE CHRISTENSEN (out from $1.50) |
| $2.10 MIKE BRUNKER (in from $2.40) |
| BENNELONG – NSW |
| $1.36 MAXINE McKEW (out from $1.34) |
| $2.90 JOHN ALEXANDER (in from $3.00) |
| CORANGAMITE – VIC |
| $1.70 DARREN CHEESEMAN (in from $1.75) |
| $2.04 SARAH HENDERSON (out from $1.97) |
| EDEN-MONARO – NSW |
| $1.36 MIKE KELLY (out from $1.34) |
| $2.90 DAVID GAZARD (in from $3.10) |
| LEICHHARDT – QLD |
| $1.53 WARREN ENTSCH (out from $1.50) |
| $2.35 JIM TURNOUR (in from $2.40) |
| MACQUARIE – NSW |
| $1.72 LOUISE MARKUS (in from $1.75) |
| $2.00 SUSAN TEMPLEMAN (out from $1.96) |
| HINKLER – QLD |
| $1.35 PAUL NEVILLE (in from $1.50) |
| $2.95 BELINDA McNEVEN (out from $2.40) |
| RYAN – QLD |
| $1.48 JANE PRENTICE (in from $1.50) |
| $2.47 STEVE MILES (out from $2.40) |
| SWAN – WA |
| $1.44 STEVE IRONS (in from $1.47) |
| $2.60 TIM HAMMOND (out from $2.52) |
| STURT – SA |
| $1.25 CHRISTOPHER PYNE (in from $1.55) |
| $3.50 RICK SARRE (out from $2.32) |
| BASS – TAS |
| $1.68 GEOFF LYONS (out from $1.63) |
| $2.05 STEVE TITMUS (in from $2.16) |
| NSW STATE ELECTION – SCH MAR, 2011 |
| $6.50 LABOR (out from $6.00) |
| $1.09 COALITION (in from $1.11) |
| VIC STATE ELECTION – SCH NOV 27 |
| $1.45 LABOR (out from $1.44) |
| $2.68 COALITION (in from $2.72) |
| AUST FED ELECTION – SCH AUG 21 |
| $1.52 LABOR |
| $2.50 COALITION |
| LINE |
| $1.85 LABOR ( - 5.5 seats) |
| $1.85 COALITION ( + 5.5 seats) |
last update : 4th August 2010 14:52
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