The “Dirty Dozen” - NSW seats that will decide the election!
Tags : neil evans, featured, Elections, election, AUST federal election12th August 2010, by Unknown author
Sydney’s greater west wipes Labor in electoral backlash!
Libs favourite to steal Lindsay: Bradbury most unbacked MP in the country!
In a key seat electoral backlash that almost defies the outright betting, Federal Labor is being wiped by smart punters on Centrebet across greater western Sydney and its fringes as vital infrastructure and policy plans are being exposed as marginal “sand-bagging”!
Just weeks after voters wiped NSW State Labor off the planet in a Penrith bi-election that saw emerging Liberal Stuart Ayres backed from $1.20 into $1.05 and win in a swinging landslide, the crucial Federal electorate of Lindsay is about to do the same to embattled sitting Labor MP David Bradbury, according to the money!
Centrebet’s Neil Evans said the money for Liberal Fiona Scott was so strong, she has remarkably charged into $1.80 favourite after opening a $2.70 outsider. Despite sitting on a 6.3% margin, Bradbury is the most unbacked MP in the land – and has blown from $1.40 to a $1.90 outsider!
“Punters know the heartbeat of the western suburbs – and it seems the iconic ghost of former Liberal MP Jackie Kelly who held the seat under John Howard’s 1996-2007 reign is set to return,” Evans said.
Evans added, on top of out-of-control government spending, reports today that NSW Transport Minister John Robertson’s 10-year Sydney roads plan did not include a Parramatta to Epping rail link just 24 hours after PM Gillard and NSW Premier Kenneally said the opposite would “resonate like poison” through the hard-working suburbs of Sydney’s western basin.
“Last night, Opposition leader Tony Abbott's strong and likeable performance in western Sydney ignited a turnaround in smart money across western and south-western Sydney! Straight away, Ms Scott firmed from $2.12 into $2.00, and the money has continued for her again today,” Evans added!
In other key betting moves on Centrebet, the Lib’s Craig Kelly is now clear favourite ($1.75) to retain the southern Sydney seat of Hughes the Coalition holds by a thread, while even more significantly, Liberal and former Campbelltown Mayor Russell Matheson has grabbed favouritism from Labor’s Nicholas Bleasdale in the notionally-Labor seat of Macarthur.
Evans added the outer western and north-western seat of Macquarie also looks headed to the Coalition, with former Greenway MP Louise Markus very heavily backed into $1.50 favourite, with punters wiping Labor’s Susan Templeman ($2.42), while Bob Baldwin (Paterson) and Darren Jameson (Robertson) remain two of the most heavily-backed Coalition candidates in the country! And popular Liberal Joanna Gash looks home in the very tight NSW south coast seat of Gilmore having been heavily backed from $1.65 into $1.28.
The only shining lights are Craig Thomson ($1.60 into $1.50) seemingly defying the Liberal bid in the key NSW Central Coast seat of Dobell, while Mike Kelly ($1.33 into $1.30) maintains strong favouritism in the bellwether seat of Eden Monaro.
After last night’s western Sydney forum, and policy launches this morning, the Coalition has firmed back into $2.92 (from $3.00), including bets of $10,000.00, $5,000.00 and $2,000.00, while Labor – very heavily backed for 48 hours – eases out from $1.38 out to $1.40.
| NSW KEY SEATS | ||
| LINDSAY | ||
| $1.80 | FIONA SCOTT (LIB) | (in from $2.70) |
| $1.90 | DAVID BRADBURY (ALP) | (out from $1.40) |
| HUGHES | ||
| $1.75 | CRAIG KELLY (LIB) | (in from $1.90) |
| $1.97 | BRENT THOMAS (ALP) | (out from $1.80) |
| MACARTHUR | ||
| $1.80 | RUSSELL MATHESON (LIB) | (in from $1.90) |
| $1.90 | NICHOLAS BLEASDALE (ALP) | (out from $1.82) |
| GILMORE | ||
| $1.28 | JOANNA GASH (LIB) | (in from $1.65) |
| $3.32 | NEIL REILLY (ALP) | (out from $2.12) |
| MACQUARIE | ||
| $1.50 | LOUISE MARKUS (LIB) | (in from $1.85) |
| $2.42 | SUSAN TEMPLEMAN (ALP) | (out from $1.85) |
| PATERSON | ||
| $1.32 | BOB BALDWIN (LIB) | (in from $1.55) |
| $3.10 | JIM ARNEMAN (ALP) | (out from $2.40) |
| ROBERTSON | ||
| $1.38 | DARREN JAMESON (LIB) | (in from $1.65) |
| $2.82 | DEB O’NEILL (ALP) | (out from $2.12) |
| COWPER | ||
| $1.27 | LUKE HARTSUYKER (NAT) | (in from $1.50) |
| $3.40 | PAUL SEFKY (ALP) | (out from $2.42) |
| DOBELL | ||
| $1.50 | CRAIG THOMSON (ALP) | (in from $1.52) |
| $2.40 | JOHN McNAMARA (LIB) | (out from $2.37) |
| BENNELONG | ||
| $1.55 | MAXINE McKEW (ALP) | (out from $1.50) |
| $2.36 | JOHN ALEXANDER (LIB) | (in from $2.42) |
| EDEN-MONARO | ||
| $1.30 | MIKE KELLY (ALP) | (in from $1.33) |
| $3.25 | DAVID GAZARD (LIB) | (out from $3.10) |
| PAGE | ||
| $1.48 | JANELLE SAFIN (ALP) | (in from $1.65) |
| $2.50 | KEVIN HOGAN (NAT) | (out from $2.12) |
| AUST FED ELECTION – AUG 21 | ||
| $2.92 | COALITION | (in from $3.00) |
| $1.40 | LABOR | (out from $1.38) |
| LINE | ||
| $1.85 | LABOR | (- 6.5 seats) |
| $1.85 | COALITION | (+ 6.5 seats) |
last update : 12th August 2010 12:09
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