NSW Seats That Will Decide the Election, Don't Just Watch it!
Tags : press release, neil evans, media release, featured, Elections, election16th August 2010, by Daniel Hillege
Julia talks as smart money destroys her western Sydney marginal bid!
It might be remembered as the flashpoint of the election campaign, As Julia Gillard was waxing lyrical about “moving forward” and dropping everyone’s name from Robert James Lee Hawke to Barack “Yes We Can” Obama at the official Brisbane campaign launch, smart political punters on Centrebet were cutting her bid for marginal seat supremacy in greater western Sydney to pieces!
“As the flame-haired leader desperately tried to ignite an anti-Abbott bonfire - ironically in anti-Labor Qld - punters were lighting a very different blaze across Sydney’s stream of marginal seats,” Centrebet’s media chief and primary analyst Neil Evans said.
In a staggering show of support, the Liberal’s former Greenway MP Louise Markus today firmed from $1.52 into $1.47 to win the vital far-western Sydney seat of Macquarie after bets of $1500.00 at $1.52, $1,000.00 at $1.50 and another surge from a regular client from Sydney’s east who has unloaded nearly $5,000.00 across 12 separate wagers on Ms Markus from $1.70 down to her current price! “Not only does this punter think Ms Markus will win, he believes she’s been well over the odds for weeks,” Evans said.
The news is equally disastrous for Labor in the south-western Sydney seat of Macarthur where ALP candidate Nicholas Bleasdale has blown from $1.92 out to $2.10 as further smart money for Liberal Russell Matheson has seen him tighten from $1.80 into $1.67!
Incredibly, another surge of smart money for former tennis pro John Alexander today in Bennelong has seen him shorten from $2.27 into $2.17, while embattled sitting Labor MP Maxine McKew eases from $1.60 out to $1.64! “This is one of the greatest betting battles in the country, with nearly $40,000.00 traded in this seat.
And in the critical south-western Sydney seat of Hughes, the Liberal’s Craig Kelly has firmed from $1.75 into $1.70 today after several thousand dollars in “connected” money was wagered.
Evans added that while the Central Coast seat of Robertson was also “shot” for Labor, the neighbouring seat of Dobell was still tracking heavily towards ALP encumbent Craig Thomson ($1.50 into $1.46)! “Two other shining lights for Labor in NSW marginals were Mike Kelly – heavily backed into $1.28 favourite to retain the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro - and Janelle Safin ($1.48) still a rock-solid fancy to win Page!
He said a betting war had developed in the critical far western Sydney seat of Lindsay where embattled Labor MP David Bradbury has again put his nose in front after a surge of money, including one bet of $2,500.00 at $1.90! The money for Liberal Fiona Scott was so strong, she charged into $1.80 favourite, despite needing to claw back a 6.3% margin, but in the last 48 hours it has swung back Bradbury’s way.
Evans added continual reports the Parramatta to Epping rail link in western Sydney was nothing more than a Federal campaign pipedream knowing State Labor was headed for an unprecedented trouncing at the NSW election in March, was still hurting PM Gillard’s campaign.
Evans said punters on Centrebet were still not overly biting at the “crazy” price of the Coalition ($3.80) winning the election, despite clear money trails right across marginal seats in NSW, Qld and WA they were getting very close.
“There was a run of action the Coalition’s way late Sunday and again today – including bets of $2,500.00 , $1,000.00 and $600.00 at $3.80, $1,000.00 and $500.00 at $3.70, and $1,000.00, $800.00 and $600.00 at $3.60 – but every time Labor’s price is pushed out, big political punters step in!”
In the last 18 hours we have seen wagers of $3,500.00 at $1.28, $25,000.00, $5,000.00 and $2,500.00 at $1.27 and a short time ago $7,000.00 at $1.26!
Evans said the prospect of Labor losing its majority and the election returning a Hung Parliament had been backed from an opening $4.40 into $3.40, including bets of $1,000.00 and two of $500.00, but last night a regular election client had $10,000.00 on NO Hung Parliament at $1.27 followed by another bet of $2,000.00 at $1.26.
And just before lunch today, a client bet $5,000.00 on Labor winning 26 seats or less in NSW at $1.66! “This punter will be winning – I can’t get Labor past 23, or 24 maximum in NSW,” Evans added.
“And I’m sure Coalition supporters are hoping former Labor leader Mark Latham sticks around for the final week. He’s social poison, and something of a joke asking people – especially young voters – to fill in a blank House of Reps sheet on Saturday. It’s hard to believe – and very sad - this bloke once had the honour of running for the top office in the land!”
| NSW ULTRA KEY SEATS (THE DIRTY DOZEN) | ||
| LINDSAY | ||
| $1.80 | DAVID BRADBURY (ALP) | (in from $1.88) |
| $1.92 | FIONA SCOTT (LIB) | (out from $1.85) |
| HUGHES | ||
| $1.70 | CRAIG KELLY (LIB) | (in from $1.75) |
| $2.05 | BRENT THOMAS (ALP) | (out from $1.96) |
| MACARTHUR | ||
| $1.67 | RUSSELL MATHESON (LIB) | (in from $1.80) |
| $2.10 | NICHOLAS BLEASDALE (ALP) | (out from $1.92) |
| GILMORE | ||
| $1.28 | JOANNA GASH (LIB) | (in from $1.65) |
| $3.32 | NEIL REILLY (ALP) | (out from $2.12) |
| MACQUARIE | ||
| $1.47 | LOUISE MARKUS (LIB) | (in from $1.52) |
| $2.52 | SUSAN TEMPLEMAN (ALP) | (out from $2.40) |
| PATERSON | ||
| $1.28 | BOB BALDWIN (LIB) | (in from $1.32) |
| $3.38 | JIM ARNEMAN (ALP) | (out from $3.10) |
| ROBERTSON | ||
| $1.33 | DARREN JAMESON (LIB) | (in from $1.38) |
| $3.10 | DEB O’NEILL (ALP) | (out from $2.83) |
| COWPER | ||
| $1.25 | LUKE HARTSUYKER (NAT) | (in from $1.27) |
| $3.60 | PAUL SEFKY (ALP) | (out from $3.40) |
| DOBELL | ||
| $1.46 | CRAIG THOMSON (ALP) | (in from $1.52) |
| $2.55 | JOHN McNAMARA (LIB) | (out from $2.37) |
| BENNELONG | ||
| $1.64 | MAXINE McKEW (ALP) | (out from $1.60) |
| $2.17 | JOHN ALEXANDER (LIB) | (in from $2.27) |
| EDEN-MONARO | ||
| $1.28 | MIKE KELLY (ALP) | (in from $1.30) |
| $3.40 | DAVID GAZARD (LIB) | (out from $3.10) |
| PAGE | ||
| $1.48 | JANELLE SAFIN (ALP) | (in from $1.52) |
| $2.50 | KEVIN HOGAN (NAT) | (out from $2.41) |
| AUST FED ELECTION – AUG 21 | ||
| $3.80 | COALITION | (out from $3.60) |
| $1.26 | LABOR | (in from $1.28) |
| LINE | ||
| $1.92 | LABOR | (- 6.5 seats) |
| $1.85 | COALITION | (+ 6.5 seats) |
| HUNG PARLIAMENT | ||
| $3.80 | YES | (in from $4.40) |
| $1.24 | NO | (out from $1.18) |
For all the best Election markets and Prices - Centrebet.com
last update : 16th August 2010 14:25
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