ELECTION NEWS AND VIEWS: SAY CHEESE!

19th August 2010, by Daniel Hillege

Labor’s Darren Cheeseman has seemingly fought off the challenge from former TV presenter Sarah Henderson in the crucial Victorian marginal seat of Corangamite, according to the money on Centrebet.

Media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said there had been an influential and significant “run” on Cheeseman in the last 24 hours, including one smart bet of $8,000.00 at $1.62, and several others up to $2,000.00 at $1.60 and $1.58! “Cheeseman has rocketed into $1.52 favourite, while Ms Henderson, who at one stage in early betting got in to $1.97, is now out the door to $2.38!

Liberal challenger and former Davis Cup star John Alexander’s withering betting burst is so strong, money is even coming for him to win back the crunch Sydney seat of Bennelong on first preferences! Evans said scores of bets came again for Alexander today, including one regular electoral client of $2,500.00, and he’s tumbled into $1.54 favourite. Sitting Labor MP Maxine McKew cannot stop the “bleeding,” and having been $1.58 a week ago, she’s been wiped by the money out to $2.38! Bet numbers are running Alexander’s way by 3:1.

Labor’s Laura Smyth has a short time ago claimed favouritism to win the tight Victorian seat of La Trobe, firming today from $1.98 into $1.80! Evans said the money had “completely dried up” for sitting Liberal Jason Wood who has blown from $1.57 out to an under-fire $1.92! Smyth was backed heavily from $2.28 down yesterday, and more money today, including one bet of $5,000.00, and a short time ago two of $1,000.00 each at $1.92, means she has taken 95 per cent of the money in the last 48 hours.

But Labor can kiss goodbye to its chances of winning ultra-marginal Macarthur in Sydney’s south-west! The money has been so dominant in the last few days for the Liberal’s Russell Matheson he has tumbled from $1.68 into $1.20! Some of Australia’s most highly-rated political punters have backed Matheson, included in a “conveyor belt” of bets, $2,500.00, $2,000.00, $1500.00 and scores of wagers up to $1,000.00! The money is now running 92/8 the Coalition’s way.

The Liberal’s Craig Kelly remains a very heavily backed $1.36 (opened $1.80) favourite to win the tight southern Sydney seat of Hughes! One punter has 12 separate wagers totalling nearly $8,000.00 on Kelly, while another tough punter has bet $2,000.00! Labor’s Brent Thomas overall is $1.90 out to $2.96.

Another surge of money, including one bet of $1,000.00 and several between $250.00 and $750.00 has seen the LNP’s Warren Entsch tighten from $1.28 into $1.26 today to win back Leichhardt in Qld’s Far North! Evans said the money – nearly $22,000.00 overall - underlines this could be one of the most vicious swings away from Labor across the country, with the ALP’s 4.1 % margin for encumbent Jim Arneman ($3.60) set to be “torn to shreds!”

It seems the ALP is on target repeat a clean sweep of the 5 Federal seats in Tasmania after a huge run of money for Geoff Lyons today to retain the volatile marginal seat of Bass! “After there was a good early move for the Liberal’s Steve Titmus, the last 48 hours has solely belonged to Labor, Lyons has tumbled in from $1.70 to $1.32 after scores and score of bets, including $7,000.00 at $1.63, $1,000.00 at $1.60 and a short time ago $2,500.00 at $1.42! Labor now holds 85 per cent of the money, with Titmus drifting from $2.06 out to $3.15! The other four Tasmania seats are certain to go to Labor!

Adam Bandt remains a $1.44 favourite to create history and win the Victorian seat of Melbourne for the Greens! He holds a 75/25 split of money, including two separate bets of $3,000.00 and $2,500.00! Labor’s Cath Bowtell blew out to $2.90, but is back in now to $2.68.

The Coalition is gone in the marginal Victorian seat of McEwen. The money for Labor’s Rob Mitchell is so dominant, he’s closed to a hot $1.24 favourite, with the Liberal’s Cameron Caine unwanted by punters and blown to $3.75! Bet numbers are running a staggering 8:1 Labor’s way.

In the marginal SA seat of Boothby, Labor is still not out of the running after good money arrived today for Annabel Digance! Evans said nearly 2k in bets arrived as she closed from $2.65 back into $2.54, while sitting Liberal Andrew Southcott eased slightly from $1.46 out to $1.47.

The Qld marginal seat of Bonner may also be in doubt for Labor, with Liberal challenger Ross Vasta firming today from $2.30 into $2.07 after a surge of money, including one punter staking $2,000.00. Labor’s Kerry Rea, who opened $1.40 favourite, is now out to $1.68!

Money continues to pour in for Liberal Dr Andrew Laming to win the ultra marginal Qld seat of Bowman! “This looks over the line for the LNP, Dr Laming is now into a red-hot $1.15 after a rapid-fire $10k in bets! Labor’s Jenny Peters has blown right out to $4.75, and is trailling in bet numbers on a 5:1 ratio.

With nearly $25,000.00 bet into the vital Qld marginal of Dawson, the LNP’s George Christensen is maintaining favouritism at $1.62 (in from $1.65) against Whitsunday Mayor and Labor candidate Mike Brunker at $2.18 (out from $2.12). “This will be tight, although the smart money tells us Mr Christensen will hang on,” Evans said.

Labor will win the marginal Victorian seat of Deakin, with candidate Mike Symon amazingly holding 92 percent of a near $10,000.00 book! What looked a tightish seat at the start has been blown apart and all Labor’s way, with Symon firming from $1.70 into $1.32 and holding the bet numbers on a 7:1 ratio!

Liberal frontbencher Peter Dutton has firmed further from $1.32 into $1.28 to hold the marginal Qld seat of Dickson, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara out from $3.20 to $3.40! With nearly $13,000.00 traded, Dutton has the overall split by 85/15.

Ken Wyatt is still holding $1.57 favouritism in the pivotal WA marginal of Hasluck! While the bet numbers are running 2:1 his way and the overall hold is 60/40, Labor encumbent Sharryn Jackson has fought back, and is now priced at $2.28.

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last update : 19th August 2010 15:26