King Judd feels fellow footsteps!
Tags : AFL, Australia, featured, AFL Betting, Melbourne Cup Betting22nd September 2011, by Unknown author
High class Carlton follower Marc Murphy – on the equal fourth line of betting at $14.00 - remains the big value ahead of Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count, according to Centrebet’s Neil Evans.
King Judd feels fellow footsteps.
Evans said Blues skipper Chris Judd remained the heavily-backed odds-on ($1.57) favourite to win a record-equalling third Brownlow, but the battle behind him is fascinating!
Already a two-time winner as well, the Swans’ Adam Goodes has done nothing but shorten in the closing months of the season after lifting Sydney into the finals! “He’s been well taken for weeks, and has tightened from $26.00 last month into $5.00 second favourite. Goodes is just a perennial vote-getter, and must be a live hope!” One Centrebet punter has wagered over $10,000.00 on Goodes in a spread of bets from $7.00 down to $5.50.
Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury is on the third line at $8.50, but has eased out in the final weeks with the heavy backing for Goodes! “While I’ll be shocked if Judd doesn’t win again, I really believe Murphy, who had a stellar first half of the season, is going to get very close, and he still remains terrific each-way value,” Evans said. The top three hold nearly 70 per cent of the Brownlow book, with a staggering 5000 individual bets made.
Recent bets on Judd include $5,000.00 and $2,500.00 at $1.75, and several of $2,000.00 at $1.57, $1.54 and even $1.50, while one client plunged $12,000.00 on Judd to run a place a few weeks back at $1.41.
Meanwhile, punters on Centrebet are continuing to charge into Geelong to crush West Coast in Saturday’s AFL GF qualifier, backing the hot Cats from $1.26 into $1.20 in a sustained rush of money!
Centrebet’s media chief Neil Evans reports West Coast has blown from an opening $3.90 out to $4.60, and still nothing substantial at that price! “To a man (and woman) since Monday, punters have made a monster statement, the Cats should always have been shorter,” Evans said. “Overall betting is already approaching the $120,000.00 mark, and it’s nearly all for Geelong! In fact, they could start as short as $1.16 the way it’s headed!”
“Even today, we’ve taken several wagers of $2,000.00 to $4,000.00 on the Cats at $1.21 and $1.20,” Evans said. “Before that, bets included $20,000.00 at $1.22, as well as $10,000.00 at $1.24, two of $8,000.00 at $1.26 and $1.21, $7,000.00 at $1.21, $6,000.00 at $1.21, three of $5,000.00 at $1.26 and $1.22, and $3,000.00 at $1.26! “Then there’s score of bets from $200.00 up to $2,000.00 at the substantial line which has ballooned out already from an opening -23.5 to -28.5,” Evans added!
“It’s running 12:1 the money, and punters are convinced the Eagles will not be able to back up from the hard-fought three point escape against Carlton across in Melbourne against such a ruthless side!”
Meanwhile, punters are also very confident Collingwood will end Hawthorn’s season, backing the Pies early from $1.30 into $1.28! “Wagers of $8,000.00 at $1.29, and several of $2,000.00 at $1.29 and $1.28 have led the charge, and the Hawks are suddenly out to $3.70.
BROWNLOW MEDAL – 2011
$1.57 CHRIS JUDD ($1.11)
$5.00 ADAM GOODES ($1.80)
$8.50 SCOTT PENDLEBURY ($2.50)
$14.00 GARY ABLETT ($3.60)
$14.00 MATTHEW BOYD ($3.60)
$14.00 MARC MURPHY ($3.60)
$14.00 DANE SWAN ($3.60)
$26.00 DEAN COX ($6.00)
$26.00 NICK DAL SANTO ($6.00)
$51.00 TRENT COTCHIN ($11.00)
$81.00 bar
My Finish:
- Chris Judd; 2. Adam Goodes; 3. Marc Murphy; 4. Steve Johnson; 5. Scott Pendlebury
AFL PRELIMINARY FINALS
$1.28 COLLINGWOOD (in from $1.30)
$3.70 HAWTHORN (out from $3.55)
$1.92 COLLINGWOOD (-23.5)
$1.92 HAWTHORN (+23.5)
$1.20 GEELONG (in from $1.26)
$4.60 WEST COAST (out from $3.90)
$1.92 GEELONG (-26.5)
$1.92 WEST COAST (+26.5)
AFL – PREMIERSHIP
$1.91 COLLINGWOOD (out from $1.87)
$2.50 GEELONG (in from $2.75)
$10.00 HAWTHORN
$12.00 WEST COAST
Follow me on Twitter @NeilEvansmail
last update : 22nd September 2011 14:31
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