Australian Federal Election 2004 Betting Information From Centrebet
17th June 2008, by
Centrebet offered Australian Federal Election 2004 Betting Odds. The 2004 Australian Federal Election was held on October 9 2004.
Centrebet does not accept bets on when an election will be held, as obviously there would be a group of people within the Howard Government who would have already decided. Centrebet does accept bets on the election outcome - Howard (Liberal coalition) V Latham (Labor).
Australian Federal Election 2004 Betting - October 9
John Howard has been elected to another term as Australian Prime Minister, and once again, the Centrebet 'punters poll' proved to be the best barometer when looking for the winner.
The news polls had the big race neck and neck right up until Saturday morning, but a look at the betting fluctuations suggested that it was all over much earlier than that. The closing prices were $1.10 for the Coalition, and $6 for Labor, and when you consider that exactly one week before it was $1.45 and $2.55, it is easy to see that punters were on the mark more so than the polls.
The major turning point of the campaign took place last Tuesday following the release of Labor's Forest Policy. In the ensuing days, the Liberal Party candidate, Michael Ferguson was backed from an unwanted $3.20 into $1.35.
The sitting member, Michelle O'Byrne, blew like the north wind from $1.33 out to $3. That sort of move also took place in most other seats, with Coalition candidates firming in the betting following solid support. That of course meant that Labor were unlikely to pick up marginal seats that they needed to, so they couldn't win. We confidently predicted on Friday that not only would the Coalition win, but that they would increase their majority, and that was a against what all the polls said.
Bet On The Election Result - Not The Date!
All up, just under $1.9 million was bet on the election, a staggering amount of money. Not wishing to miss an opportunity while the issue is still in the news, we have opened up the market to win the next election. On face value, the $1.33 for the Coalition might seem well over the odds given what happened last Saturday, but there are two things worth noting. The first is that Labor made some tactical errors this time, and will learn from that, and the second is that there must be a strong possibility that Peter Costello will be in charge of the Coalition by then, and that will also affect the betting.
For those who are wondering how we went on the Australian election, we managed to stagger out of it all with a very small credit. Mark Latham would have been a sensational result, but maybe next time?
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last update : 17th June 2008 17:11